Why is India-China war a potential threat to the world? Can it spark World War 3?

On 26th November 1996, India and China signed an agreement stating understandings to avoid any escalations along the Line of Actual Control (LAC, shared by India and China). The agreement states “Not using force against the other in any form what so ever“. Clearly, just like the majority of inter-country agreements, this one also seems to have aged and lose its value over time, at least for China which recently decided to put it to dust and start mischiefs at the India-China LAC. The interesting part in all of this is how the world is misjudging the whole escalations, thinking India and China are the only two parties involved in this but is it only them?

Why China is doing this?

After the spread of COVID-19 across the globe, China has been criticized heavily for endangering the whole human species. Many countries are even claiming that the virus was a lab-made virus originating from Wuhan. The population of China is feeling no different from the rest of the world and hold the same opinion for the Chinese government.

Chinese government, headed by president Xi Jinping clearly is aware of the escalations from their own public and that is what they are most worried about. Xi Jinping and the rest of the officials do not want to lose their positions due to the backlash and lost confidence by the public in government. As a result, Chinese government is trying to divert and regain the confidence of their public by indulging themselves into stereotypical strategies such as establishing dominance over other countries to keep themselves with the tag of “Supreme Power” or as what they claim to be.

How this tussle benefits China?

China has always been known for attempting to capture land from its neighbouring countries. In the past, China never had any intentions to have a tussle with India for the same. One of the reasons for this was India’s huge imports from China. But recently, due to the unforeseen circumstances of COVID, the Chinese government is left with no alternative but to try their hands with India as well at no matter what the cost is. All to regain its public’s confidence back. This might help the Chinese government as this is something they have been doing with their other neighbouring countries in the past and it came in the government’s favour majority of the time.

What if India and China go for a full-fledged war?

If for any reason, India and China get involved in a full-fledged war, things might go bad not just for these two countries but for the rest of the world as well. The fight, which seems to involve only two countries actually involves many more. The first major participant in the war could be the United States of America.

Little do people know that the U.S has deployed many warships into the South-China sea. They are frequently deploying more and more of them in the view of increasing tensions between India and China. The U.S being an immediate opposition of China and its government clearly seems to be in support of India. Therefore, the U.S could be prominent support for India if war situations arise.

The second major participant could be Russia. Russia has always been a companion to India when it comes to such situations. Although being a communist country just like China, Russia’s support will go for which country is still a debatable topic.

Talking about China, it holds major support from countries like North Korea and many other communist countries.

There should be no two thoughts about it, gone are the days when World War 3 threat came from Kim Jong-Un. The real threat for World War 3 now lies with India and China.

How Indian stock markets are reacting to these conflicts?

Indian investors are very well aware of how small scuffles at the borders could ultimately result in a disastrous war. They are also aware of how the war could critically impact the economies of both countries. Indian investors are very cautious about each and every movement and action that takes place at the India China border. Knee-jerk reactions were recorded every time any action took place at the border. Just a week ago, Nifty 50 was at around 11700 levels and it was expected to cross 12000 levels soon. But advancements at the border led to a sudden crash. Within few days NIfty 50 came to 11250 levels, draining all the steam from the market.

On any day, no matter who it is and what the circumstances are, fight and wars only cause destruction. Both India and China know what the consequences could be and we hope the issues get resorted and everyone lives with peace and harmony once again.

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